Monday, December 24, 2007

Perhaps a preview of what real polls will look like

Hillary Clinton and Ron Paul winning big on AOL straw poll

Hugo Mann

An AOL straw poll that is supposed to be spam proof shows both Hillary Clinton and Ron Paul winning their respective primaries. The poll records national as well as state-by-state results. At the time of this report over 57,000 Republicans and 56,000 Democrats have voted in the poll.

On the Democratic side the results somewhat mirrored media generated polls. Nationally Clinton has 46%, Barack Obama 27%, John Edwards 17%, Biden 4%, Kucinich 3%, Richardson 2%, Gravel 1%, and Dodd 1%.

Clinton leads in most states but Obama leads in Iowa, Illinois, Kansas, and Wyoming.

In Iowa the race is tight where Obama leads with 31% followed by Clinton with 30%and Edwards with 24%.

In New Hampshire, Clinton has 46%, Obama 26%, and Edwards has 15%.

On the Republican side the results mirrored media generated polls with one exception. Ron Paul is placing first in most states and second in several others.

The results of the other candidates did mirror media generated polls. Giuliani is winning in New York and New Jersey and Connecticut but is being edged out by Paul in Florida and New Mexico. Florida and New Mexico have changed hands several times between Giuliani and Paul.

Romney is winning Utah, Rhode Island, and Massachusetts.

Huckabee is edging out Paul in South Carolina and is being edged out by Paul in several southern states. Several southern states are virtual ties and have swung back and forth between Huckabee and Paul, including North Carolina, Alabama, and Arkansas.

Nationwide Ron Paul is generating 26% of the vote, Giuliani is getting 18%, Huckabee 17%, and Romney is getting 15%, McCain has 14%, Thompson 9%, and Duncan Hunter has 1%.

In Iowa Ron Paul has 38% of the vote. The rest of the GOP candidates mirror media generated polls regarding strength in the state. Huckabee and Romney are tied at 19%. Thompson has 9%, McCain 7%, and Giuliani 7%, with Hunter at 1%.

In New Hampshire Paul has 30% Romney 23% McCain 20%, Giuliani 15%, Huckabee 8%, Thompson 3%, and Hunter 1%. Once again, aside from Paul the candidates mirror media polls regarding strength nationally and regionally.

Paul supporters have maintained that media generated polls have been under representing his support. Paul leads GOP candidates in 4rth quarter fund raising. He has received donations from an astounding 123,000 donors this quarter.

Original article posted here

No comments: