Let's hope so . . .

Iran is safe ... for now

Despite the bluster, there is no serious prospect of an American or Israeli military attack on Iran this year.

Simon Tisdall

Shadow-boxing over Iran, pitting hard-right American neo-cons against European liberal progressives, is obscuring a reality neither camp cares to acknowledge: the threat of a US or Israeli military attack on Iran this year has receded to the point of invisibility.

Those in Europe who believe otherwise fail to understand the extent of the political paralysis now gripping the Bush administration in Washington. This is mostly but not entirely a consequence of the Iraq quagmire. Although technically George Bush still gives the orders, nobody - especially in Baghdad - is really listening any more.

The question that matters, for Congress, for the 2008 presidential candidates, and for a vast majority of the American public, is when will the troop drawdown/withdrawal/retreat in Iraq begin?

Bush's Iraq policy now amounts to little more than delaying the inevitable, according to one former senior administration official. And when General David Petraeus, coalition commander in Iraq, tells Congress in early September that the Bush surge has failed to turn the country decisively around, the White House will finally and irretrievably lose control of the policy.

The idea that in such circumstances, lacking political clout, congressional support and influential allies (Tony Blair began a round of toady-ish farewells in Washington today), and with the US military over-stretched and overwrought, Bush is gearing up to launch another, even bigger military adventure in the Middle East is unrealistic.

That is not to say Bush and his more wild-eyed advisers would not like to give Iran a slap. So, too, would hawkish Israelis like Likud leader Binyamin Netanyahu, if he had his druthers. But barring a major, unforeseen crisis - say, for instance, an Iranian military move into southern Iraq - practical politics in Washington dictate otherwise.

For his part, Ehud Olmert, Israel's prime minister, proved conclusively last summer in Lebanon that war-fighting is not his forte. Neither he nor possible successors such as Netanyahu or Tzipi Livni, nor the much criticised Israeli Defence Force, are in a position to start another big fight any time soon.

Former UN ambassador John Bolton's latest tirade, demanding an attack on Iran before it acquires nuclear weapons capability, reflects only the pent-up frustration of the neo-con camp. It does not reflect current administration intentions.

Bolton and his ilk, backed by the still formidable vice-president Dick Cheney, want to keep the pressure up and tension rising. In his peculiar way, Iran's president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, during his Gulf tour this week, is doing the same thing. Emphasising external threats suits a hardline administration in Tehran that is making such a hash of its internal policies.

Likewise, there is a constituency on the European left which prefers to keep the Iran pot boiling. It is useful tool for fanning anti-Americanism and emphasising Europe's separate identity. It is an anti-establishment rallying point.

For the majority, of course, the fear that Bush will target Iran is genuine enough. But for now it is misplaced.

Fast forward to 12 months from today, when the US withdrawal in Iraq may finally have begun, and it is possible to sketch out a far more worrying scenario.

By then Bush may feel the worst of Iraq is behind him. His Republican party and its presidential nominee will be looking for ways to rally voters ahead of the November election. Iran will be a year closer to nuclear weapons capability but not, probably, quite yet there (and therefore unable to retaliate on a nuclear scale). And like his pal Blair, legacy issues will on the president's mind.

Bush has indicated previously that he does not want to leave the "Iran problem" unresolved. And 12 months from now, after the most damaging and incompetent presidency in living memory, he may just be tempted to go out with a bang.

Original article posted here.