Myanmar drops a nuclear 'bombshell'
By Larry Jagan
BANGKOK - Myanmar's military leaders have never made a secret of their interest in developing a domestic nuclear-energy industry. Plans to buy a nuclear reactor from Russia have been in the pipeline for years, and this month in Moscow the two sides formally resurrected those controversial plans.
Myanmar's move notably comes at a time when both Iran and North Korea have raised US hackles through their nuclear programs. Washington in recent years has referred to Myanmar as an "outpost of tyranny" and maintains trade and investment sanctions against the military regime. Some political analysts are already speculating whether Myanmar might try to use the threat of re-gearing its nuclear test reactor to reproduce weapons as a way to counteract US-led pressure for political change.
Under the new agreement, Russia's atomic energy agency Rosatom will build a nuclear-research center, including a 10-megawatt light-water nuclear reactor with low-enriched uranium consisting of less than 20% uranium-235, an activation analysis laboratory, a medical isotope production laboratory, a silicon doping system, and nuclear-waste treatment and burial facilities, according to a statement released by Rosatom.
The project is initially slated to focus on medical and agricultural research in support of Myanmar's languishing and highly underdeveloped economy, a Western diplomat acquainted with the nuclear plans told Asia Times Online on condition of anonymity. As part of the agreement, Russian universities would also be tasked with training an additional 350 Myanmar-national specialists to work at the planned nuclear center.
Over the past six years, more than 1,000 Myanmar scientists, technicians and military personnel have received nuclear training in Russia, according to Myanmar government officials. Under a 2002 agreement, Russia was set to build a nuclear reactor in Myanmar but later scrapped the plan over the junta's lack of funds. Nonetheless, Moscow informed the United Nations' International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in mid-2003 that it planned to provide training in nuclear science to some 300 Myanmar citizens each year.
According to Russian officials, the construction and supervision of the planned research center will come under the control of the IAEA. Myanmar is currently a member of the IAEA and already reportedly has a so-called "safeguards agreement" in place. Under the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), states in compliance with their safeguards' obligations and other provisions are allowed to pursue nuclear energy or technology solely for peaceful purposes.
In practice, however, verifying the fulfillment of those obligations has proved difficult, most recently witnessed in the case of Iran's secretive nuclear-energy program, which it insists is for peaceful purposes and within its NPT rights, while others, such as US, suspect it is geared for a weapons program. Russia is also involved in developing a nuclear facility for Iran.
There are already concerns in some diplomatic quarters that Myanmar's notoriously reclusive regime could throw up similar challenges to IAEA inspectors. No timetable has yet been set for the implementation of this one-off safeguards agreement, nor have any provisions been set for procuring supplies beyond what is required initially to establish the nuclear-research center, diplomats note.
Moreover, the junta's stated motivation for establishing a nuclear-research reactor has vacillated over time. In January 2002, then-foreign minister Win Aung told this correspondent that Myanmar was committed to developing a nuclear-research facility for medical purposes and also possibly to generate nuclear power. Myanmar "is keen to explore the use of nuclear energy", he said at the time. "After all, many other countries in the world are using nuclear power."
At that time, Win Aung said no deal had been signed, but that initial research had been undertaken. Apparently the initial plans to develop a nuclear-energy industry emerged a year or two earlier. Win Aung told the IAEA in September 2001 of the country's plans to acquire a nuclear-research reactor and requested the agency's help in securing one, according to IAEA officials who spoke on condition of anonymity.
Two months later, the IAEA sent an inspection team to Myanmar to assess the country's preparedness to use and maintain a nuclear reactor safely. The team concluded that the safety standards in place were well below the minimum the body would regard as acceptable, according to the IAEA officials. At the time, Myanmar failed to respond to the IAEA report and prompted UN nuclear officials in Vienna to fear that Myanmar planned to proceed with its nuclear ambitions without the necessary safety requirements.
Groundbreaking had reportedly commenced, but construction was halted when Moscow realized the junta didn't have the financial resources to pay for the facility. Yet the junta never fully abandoned its nuclear ambitions.
On the nuclear prowl
In recent years, Myanmar has sent emissaries abroad to explore different options for developing a nuclear reactor and avenues for acquiring nuclear technology, according to Western diplomats tracking the junta's nuclear plans. They contend that this year Deputy Foreign Minister Kyaw Too made a low-profile visit to Iran in the regime's search for nuclear technology and materials.
Myanmar's close contacts with Pakistan have also recently come under diplomatic scrutiny. Western diplomats based in Islamabad say they are convinced that the junta's desire to acquire nuclear know-how has been a central focus of the budding bilateral relationship. Pakistani officials have fervently denied that they are in any way abetting Myanmar's nuclear ambitions. But widespread rumors that two Pakistani nuclear scientists accused of nuclear proliferation were given sanctuary in Myanmar in 2003 still linger.
More ominous have been the growing contacts between Myanmar and North Korea - last month the countries formally re-established diplomatic relations. According to a US State Department official involved in monitoring nuclear-proliferation issues, several suspicious shipments have arrived from North Korea over the past six months. "We have been tracking North Korean ships and several docked in Yangon late last month originated from the port where we believe nuclear materials may be shipped," he said.
After one North Korean ship docked at Yangon's port last November, the official said, Washington reminded the junta that it was obliged to search the ship under the UN sanction measures adopted the previous month after Pyongyang staged its controversial nuclear test. Myanmar authorities reported back three days later, according to US sources, saying that the vessel in question contained nothing illicit or suspicious.
Last year's shipments from North Korea also reportedly upset China - as neither Pyongyang nor Yangon informed Beijing of the two countries' increasing military-to-military contacts. For their part, Chinese authorities are convinced that Myanmar has recently received military hardware, including missiles, from North Korea, but not nuclear weapons or materials, according to a senior government source in Beijing.
The latest North Korean shipment arrived in Yangon this week and its cargo is being unloaded amid exceptionally tight security, according to Yangon residents who have passed by the port facilities.
There is still no confirmed site for the planned nuclear reactor, though reliable sources believe it will be built somewhere in the country's central Mandalay division. North Korean technicians reportedly visited the site last year, according to a Myanmar military source who spoke with Asia Times Online.
At the same time as the junta presses ahead with its plans for a nuclear reactor, the government has stepped up its exploration for uranium in the country. Surveys and test mining are taking place at four sites, including in the ethnic Kachin and Shan states, a government official told Asia Times Online on condition of anonymity. At the time the original plans for a nuclear reactor were mooted, the government had reportedly discovered uranium deposits in five areas in central and northern Myanmar, according to official government statistics.
The nuclear reactor that the regime now plans to build is reportedly not capable of producing enriched uranium or potentially of any military use, according to senior nuclear specialists who monitor these matters closely. Nonetheless, there are still concerns both in the West and in the region that Myanmar's military rulers over the long term could harbor nuclear-weapon ambitions.
"The generals cannot be trusted," said a Bangkok-based Western diplomat who follows Myanmar affairs. "While they say they will let the IAEA in at the moment, the history of rogue regimes like the one in Yangon is that they never keep their promises."
Larry Jagan previously covered Myanmar politics for the British Broadcasting Corp. He is currently a freelance journalist based in Bangkok.
Original article posted here.
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