Monkey See, Monkey Do. Bush is an idiot, but I'll still follow you!

UK could remain in Iraq for decade

THE final withdrawal of British forces from Iraq will not take place until the US pulls out, and that could be another decade, the government indicated yesterday, amid hopes thousands of troops will return to the UK next year.

Des Browne, the Defence Secretary, sought to maintain the government's recent positive tone on Iraq even as the United Nations was warning that the country is "almost" in a state of civil war.

Speaking to a London think-tank, the minister repeated predictions that Iraqi security forces would be able to take control of Basra next year.

And that hand-over, he said, will allow a major cut in British troop numbers in Iraq, currently about 7,200.

"By the end of next year I expect numbers of British forces in Iraq to be significantly lower - by a matter of thousands," Mr Browne said.

"The planning for this has been going on for some months, and I have been asking our planners to look at all the options to make sure we do not ask a single extra soldier to remain in Iraq longer than is necessary."

Despite continuing violence, ministers have been painting an optimistic picture of Iraq, encouraging talk of a British withdrawals. However, there are clear limits to that optimism.

Italy backed the invasion in 2003, but following a change of government earlier this year, announced it would withdraw its forces from Iraq. Romano Prodi, the Italian premier, said yesterday that the last Italian troops will leave next month.

By contrast, Mr Browne made clear that their could be no such early final exit for British forces.

"Even when all the provinces are handed over, we will still be providing a force to mentor and back up the Iraqi army and police, and to protect coalition supply routes," Mr Browne said.

That commitment to maintain supply routes from the Persian Gulf coast to US forces in Baghdad and central Iraq effectively ties the final British pull-out to a US withdrawal.

Mr Brown even appeared to suggest that British forces could be in Iraq a decade from now.

"I am not at this stage seeking to set out what the level of troop deployment will be in five or ten years," he said.

The Defence Secretary was discussing Iraq in London as David Cameron, the Tory leader, visited Basra on a fact-finding mission that forced him to miss the CBI conference in London.

Sir Menzies Campbell, the Liberal Democrat leader, said that Mr Brown still had not given a clear exit strategy for British forces.

"We still don't know many troops will be kept there at the end of next year or for how long," he said. "My complaint for the British government is that we don't seem to have British strategy based on British priorities."

Meanwhile in the Commons yesterday, a Scottish National Party attempt to force a Commons vote on an immediate Iraqi withdrawal was blocked.

Alex Salmond, the SNP leader, said MPs had "lost a tremendous opportunity to reassert parliamentary accountability over the government".

As British politicians debated UK involvement in Iraq, Kofi Annan, the UN secretary-general, issued a stark warning that Iraq is moving ever closer to full-blown civil war.

"Given the developments on the ground, unless something is done drastically and urgently to arrest the deteriorating situation, we could be there. In fact we are almost there," Mr Annan said.
'TALK TO IRAN AND SYRIA'

A DRAFT report prepared for an influential US panel considering alternatives for Iraq urges direct talks with Iran and Syria but sets no schedule for troop withdrawal, the New York Times reported yesterday.

The Iraq Study Group (ISG) is likely to accept the recommendation for US dialogue with Iraq's neighbours, but it may be split over setting timetables for the withdrawal of US troops.

The draft will serve as a basis for discussions by the ISG's ten members, led by James Baker, a former US secretary of state, and Lee Hamilton, a former Democratic congressman from Indiana.

The ISG is due to hold two days of talks this week and its long-anticipated report is expected to be presented to George Bush, the US president, next month.

"They are not sharing with us what their recommendations may or may not be," Gordon Johndroe, a spokesman for the White House National Security Council, said.

"As far as Iran and Syria are concerned, we've expressed a number of times that Iran and Syria know the steps they can take to improve the situation in Iraq."

Mr Bush is not required to accept the ISG's recommendations - the US joint chiefs of staff and National Security Council are working on similar studies. But the ISG is likely to command much influence because of its bipartisan make-up.

JAMES KIRKUP POLITICAL EDITOR (jkirkup@scotsman.com)

Original article posted here.