Hold your breath: Will this be a week to wage war? November Surprise?

WMD intercept exercise set to begin in the Gulf

By Guy Dinmore in Washington, Roula Khalaf in London and Najmeh Bozorgmehr in Tehran
War games designed to intercept ships carrying weapons of mass destruction will take place for the first time today in the Gulf opposite Iran.

The naval exercise – organised under the US’s 2003 Proliferation Security Initiative – will include Bahrain, one of the regional states and host to a US naval base.

Although the US says the move is not specifically aimed at Iran, the PSI exercise comes amid heightened concerns over Tehran’s nuclear programme.

The US and European states are pushing for a United Nations Security Council resolution that would restrict, through sanctions, Tehran’s ability to procure material for its ballistic missile and nuclear programmes.

Iran has refused to heed international calls for a halt to the most sensitive parts of its nuclear programme and has stepped up uranium enrichment research in recent days.

Bahrain’s participation is a first for an Arab country. Kuwait, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates are sending observers. Australia, France, Italy, the UK, the US and Bahrain are providing vessels and other assets.

Mohammad Ali Hosseini, foreign ministry spokesman in Tehran, refused on Sunday to describe the exercise as a threat to Iran but called for security co-operation between the states of the region without the participation of foreign forces.

Monday’s exercise comes as the US seeks to counter Iran’s growing influence in the region by promoting a new “strategic partnership” with the oil-rich Arab Gulf states. This partnership is aimed at bolstering the states’ air defences in the face of security threats, whether from terrorism or a possible military conflict with Iran.

US officials suggest Gulf Arab states have a keen interest in closer security co-operation and that all, except Saudi Arabia, had “formally endorsed” PSI, motivated by concerns over Iran’s nuclear intentions.

But analysts in the region played down Gulf states’ enthusiasm and said Saudi Arabia, in particular, was worried that US efforts would lead to further strain on relations with Tehran.

In the year to April 2006, PSI participants had carried out “roughly two dozen” interceptions, according to a US official. However, of strategically significant countries, China has not signed up for the initiative and South Korea is taking part as an observer.

The legal basis of the interceptions of ships also remains unclear. A senior US official told reporters that UN Security Council resolution 1718, passed this month imposing sanctions on North Korea, does not give any new legal authority to the US or other states to intercept ships in international waters.

The legal component is an integral part of Monday’s “Leading Edge” exercise as PSI participants try to work out on what grounds they can board the target vessel. If, for example, the ship is flagged by Cyprus or Panama, which have signed on to the PSI commitments, then other PSI participants would have the right to intercept.

In parallel, the US-led Global Initiative to Combat Nuclear Terrorism on Monday holds its inaugural meeting in Rabat, Morocco. It is expected to endorse a statement of principles aimed at preventing nuclear materials from falling into the wrong hands; development of detection capabilities and co-operation on tracing the source of any nuclear material used in an attack.

Those taking part comprise the G8 nations, China, Kazakhstan, Australia and Italy.

Original article posted here.