The Moron's War: Beyond Failure

Iraq: Worse than civil war

The Bush administration, struggling to bolster its case for an escalation of U.S. military force in Iraq, released selected excerpts of a new national intelligence report today painting a dire picture of the situation in Iraq – a conflict that the term civil war cannot "adequately capture.''

The report, warning that a withdrawal of forces could result in massive civilian casualties, acknowledges that even if the White House's new war policy succeeds in gaining control over security in Iraq, leaders there will be "hard-pressed'' to resolve the sectarian violence besieging the nation in the next year to 18 months.

The White House, maintaining that the "dire'' situation described in this new National Intelligence Estimate was the motivating factor behind President Bush's decision last month to deploy an additional 21,500 U.S. troops in Iraq, is releasing it on the eve of a Senate debate over a resolution protesting the deployment.

It also comes on the eve of a new federal budget that Bush will propose on Monday, with the White House seeking an additional $100 billion for the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan this year in addition to another $150 billion in 2008 – pushing the overall war's predicted cost well past $500 billion.

"This is a new document, but it's not new intelligence,'' National Security Adviser Stephen Hadley said of the NIE that the intelligence community had produced this week, with a declassified summary made public today. "It is this intelligence and the picture it paints that caused the president to…. develop a new strategy for Iraq,'' Hadley said, maintaining that the assessment of the situation in Iraq is "not at war'' with the president's new policy but "generally supports it.'' There was no effort, Hadley said, to "put a policy spin'' on this report.

Yet as much as the White House insists that this new intelligence estimate served as the basis for the war policy that Bush outlined in a national television address on Jan. 10, some analysts say this report goes far beyond any concessions the president made about the situation in Iraq with that announcement.

"The new NIE presents a far grimmer and more realistic picture of Iraq than President Bush did in announcing his new strategy,'' said Anthony Cordesman, of the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

While the White House is citing the report as rationale for its new policy, the report concludes:

-- Even "if violence is diminished,'' Iraqi leaders will be "hard-pressed'' to achieve sustained political reconciliation during the time frame of this intelligence estimate, which is 12 to 18 months

-- The term, civil war, does not "adequately capture the complexity of the conflict in Iraq,'' though it certainly applies to key conflicts taking place there, including the "hardening'' of ethno-centric identities and a "sea change in the character of the violence.''

-- Coalition forces remain "an essential stabilizing element'' in Iraq.

-- Despite real improvements, Iraq Security Forces will be hard-pressed to operate "independently.'' And if U.S. forces withdrew, Iraqi forces could not withstand the ensuing violence – likely to lead to massive civilian casualties and the deplacement of many Iraqis.

-- While Iraq's neighbors are interfering, "outside actors'' are not "a major driver of violence'' inside Iraq.
Nevertheless , Iranian "lethal support'' clearly ''intensifies the conflict.''

-- Al Qaeda in Iraq continues to act as a very effective "accelerator'' of sectarian violence between Shi'a and Sunnis, which has become "self-sustaining.''

-- "Stronger Iraqi leadership'' could help.

"It's a tough look in Iraq,'' Hadley said today. ""It makes it clear once again, as the president has been saying, that the consequences of failure are grave and deep.''

Based on this estimate, Hadley said, the president concluded that unless efforts to reverse conditions in Iraq show ''measurable progress'' in the coming 12 to18 months, the situation would continue to "deteriorate…. We needed to do something different, which is why we have a new strategy.''

The administration maintains that, with many voices within Congress calling for a phased withdrawal of U.S. troops staring in the next several months, the consequences of withdrawal are "serious.''

"That's why the president concluded that the current strategy was not working -- it was a prescription for slow failure'' said Hadley, saying U.S. forces ''withdrawing now would be a prescription for fast failure.''

"What the president concluded from this is that the status quo is not stable,'' he said.

Despite the description of the conflict in Iraq as beyond the complexity of a civil war, the administration steadfastly is rejecting that term. Yet Hadley says the White House agrees with the NIE's assessment.

Asked why the White House is averting the term, civil war, Hadley said: "Because it’s not an adequate description of the situation we find ourselves in.''

Original article posted here.